David Méndez, PhD, Omar Alshanqeety, MD, MPH, Kenneth E. Warner, PhD, Paula M. Lantz, PhD and Paul N. Courant, PhD
Correspondence: Correspondence should be sent to David Méndez, Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 1415 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029 (e-mail: dmendez@umich.edu). Reprints can be ordered at http://www.ajph.org by clicking the "Reprints/Eprints" link.
Objectives: We examined the effect of current patterns of smoking rates on future radon-related lung cancer.
Methods: We combined the model developed by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Health Risks of Exposure to Radon (the BEIR VI committee) for radon risk assessment with a forecasting model of US adult smoking prevalence to estimate proportional decline in radon-related deaths during the present century with and without mitigation of high-radon houses.
Results: By 2025, the reduction in radon mortality from smoking reduction (15 percentage points) will surpass the maximum expected reduction from remediation (12 percentage points).
Conclusions: Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.
http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/2/310